Joseph Larmarange

Comparing modelled HIV incidence estimates with empirical HIV incidence observations in high-burden HIV African epidemic settings: systematic review and meta-regression

Joseph LARMARANGE — 2026-02-10T17:15:53Z

Authors

Oliver Stevens, Michelle Moffa, Joanne H. Hunt, Kyle Patel, Tihitna Aytenfisu, Adam Akullian, Rebecca L Anderson, Peter Bock, Amelia C Crampin, Sian Floyd, Simon Gregson, Richard J Hayes, Collins Iwuji, Ivan Kasamba, Daniel Kwaro, Joseph Larmarange, Shahin Lockman, Denna Michael, Louisa Moorhouse, Joseph Mugisha, Elphas Okango, Maya L Petersen, Victor Ssempijja, Emma Slaymaker, Frank Tanser, Cari van Schalkwyk, M. Kate Grabowski, Jeffrey W. Imai-Eaton

Abstract

Background

HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa has declined substantially since 2000 according to epidemic estimates published by UNAIDS. These estimates, derived by fitting mathematical models to national surveillance data, guide HIV programmes and epidemic response strategies. We assessed whether the level and age distribution of HIV incidence from modelled estimates were consistent with empirical HIV incidence observations, and whether incidence levels and trends were systematically different between study types, populations, and age groups.

Methods

We conducted an updated systematic review of adult HIV incidence data from sub-Saharan Africa published July 2019-February 2024 by searching Scopus, PubMed, Embase, and OVID databases, and combined with earlier systematic review data. We matched empirical incidence measurements between 1990-2023 to UNAIDS HIV incidence estimates by study area, sex, age group, and year. We used Bayesian mixed-effect Poisson regression to estimate (1) incidence rate ratios (IRR) between empirical observations and matched modelled incidence estimates adjusted for sex, year and study type/population; and (2) time trends in age-specific incidence from population-based cohort studies and household surveys.

Results

3560 HIV empirical incidence measurements were included from 179 studies conducted in 21 countries, comprising 23,000 new infections and 3.1 million person-years. Incidence observations from nationally-representative household surveys (IRR 1.07 95%CI 0.68, 1.67) and population-representative study populations (IRR 0.98 95%CI 0.51, 1.89) were not significantly different from matched modelled estimates, and declined at the same rate as modelled estimates (annual aRR 0.99 95%CI 0.98, 1.01). Studies among pregnant women (IRR 2.60 95%CI 1.58, 4.28), control arms of clinical trials (IRR 3.01 95%CI 1.90, 4.77) and key populations (FSW IRR: 6.46 95%CI 4.18, 10.00; MSM 44.02 95%CI 27.35, 70.87) had significantly higher incidence than modelled total population incidence estimates. Across population cohorts in Eastern and Southern Africa, HIV incidence among adults aged 15-49 declined by 75-90% between 2010-2023, and declined 7% (95%CI 4-10%) faster per year among young adults 15-24 compared to age 25+ years. Modelled incidence declined similarly to cohort data, but did not reflect the aging of the epidemic.

Conclusion

Observed incidence in population-representative studies in sub-Saharan Africa has declined steeply. Mathematical models that infer incidence from cross-sectional HIV surveillance data estimated the same incidence level and decline over time as population-representative studies. Studies with non-representative inclusion criteria had significantly higher incidence, including those among pregnant women and most HIV prevention/vaccine efficacy trials. The age pattern of incidence in modelled estimates should be reconsidered to capture the aging of the epidemic indicated by cohort studies.

Knowledge, attitudes and practices relating to HIV self-testing following its introduction in the Bas-Sassandra region of Côte d'Ivoire: the case of the ATLAS project

Joseph LARMARANGE — 2026-01-30T17:14:26Z

Knowledge, attitudes and practices relating to HIV self-testing following its introduction in the Bas-Sassandra region of Côte d'Ivoire: the case of the ATLAS project

Arlette Simo Fotso , Christian Koukobo , Romain Silhol , Arsene Kra Kouassi , Marie-Claude Boily , Anthony Vautier , Joseph Larmarange

PLoS ONE, 2026, 21 (1), pp.e0314947. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0314947⟩

Article dans une revue

hal-05486495

Authors

Arlette Simo Fotso, Christian Koukobo, Romain Silhol, Arsène Kouassi Kra, Marie-Claude Boily, Anthony Vautier, Joseph Larmarange on behalf of the ATLAS team

Abstract

Background

Awareness of HIV status is crucial for accessing HIV care and prevention but remains suboptimal in West Africa. The ATLAS initiative, launched in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal, addressed this gap by distributing approximately 380,000 HIV self-testing (HIVST) kits from 2019 to 2021, primarily to key populations and their social networks. This study assessed levels and correlates of Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices (KAP) related to HIVST in the Bas-Sassandra region of Côte d'Ivoire following ATLAS's introduction.

Method

A cross-sectional population-based survey was conducted in the Bas-Sassandra region in 2021 among individuals aged 15–49. A total of 6,271 people (3,203 men and 3,068 women) were interviewed. They were selected using a three-stage stratified sampling approach in the Bas-Sassandra region. Bivariate statistics and multivariable logistic regressions were used to assess KAP levels and the associated factors.

Results

Although few participants reported having heard about HIVST (11%) or having used it (3%), most of them reported that if it were freely available, they would be interested/very interested in using it for themselves (76%), as well as for their sexual partners (75%). Education and wealth were positively associated with knowledge and positive attitudes towards HIVST among both men and women, whereas age was positively correlated to knowledge and use of HIVST among men only. The number of sexual partners over the last 12 months was positively associated with knowledge of HIVST and willingness to use HIVST for themselves or their sexual partners among both sexes. We also found that high HIV-related knowledge and low levels of negative attitude were positively associated with positive attitudes towards HIVST, while exposure to the media appeared to be correlated to knowledge of HIVST.

Conclusion

The high level of positive attitudes towards HIVST calls for a scaling up of access to HIVST in the region. Specific attention to groups with the worst KAP, such as the less educated, the poor or those with more HIV-related negative attitude, could enhance the success of such initiatives.

Enseigner R sur YouTube en temps de COVID-19 : retour d'expérience des webin-R

Joseph LARMARANGE — 2026-01-26T11:02:21Z

Enseigner R sur YouTube en temps de COVID-19 : retour d'expérience des webin R

Joseph Larmarange

2026

Pré-publication, Document de travail

hal-05468424

Résumé

En contexte COVID-19, j'ai mis en place en novembre 2020 un webinaire hebdomadaire d'enseignement à R : les webin-R. Diffusées en direct sur YouTube, les sessions duraient de 1 h 30 à 2 h, avec partage d'écran. Les contenus reposaient sur analyse-R, un support de formation en ligne créé et maintenu depuis 2015.

Mi-mai 2021, une enquête a été menée auprès des participantes aux webin-R (120 questionnaires complétés). Les répondantes étaient en majorité des hommes (64 %), âgés de 40 ans ou moins (62 %). La moitié (49 %) résidait hors de France. Ils/Elles étaient mastérantes (20 %), doctorantes (25 %), postdoctorantes (3 %), ingénieures (26 %), chercheures (18 %). Les disciplines étaient tout aussi variées.

En termes de participation, nous avons observé une fatigue au cours du temps, et surtout une baisse du suivi en direct au profit du différé.

Les participantes ont souligné l'importance du visionnage en différé, la mise à disposition des scripts, le chapitrage des vidéos, l'articulation avec analyse-R, le partage d'écran, la langue française et la gratuité des contenus. Certains regrettent l'absence d'exercices ou la non-possibilité de valider des crédits d'enseignement.

L'expérience des webin-R traduit une forte demande pour des contenus d'autoformation à R, avec une visée appliquée, en français, et facilement accessibles. Le format libre participe au développement d'une science ouverte.

Mots clés : enseignement statistique, R, YouTube, enquête en ligne, COVID-19.

The Effect of Sexual and Gender Minority Violence on Depression, Hazardous Drinking, Condom Use, and HIV Acquisition: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of the CohMSM, HPTN 075, and Anza Mapema Cohort Studies in Africa

Joseph LARMARANGE — 2025-07-15T14:38:37Z

Authors

James Stannah, Jesse Knight, Theo Sandfort, Christian Laurent, Fredrick O. Otieno, Joseph Larmarange, Pierre-Julien Coulaud, Victor Mudhune, erica hamilton, Vanessa Cummings, Bruno Spire, Doerieyah Reynolds, Sufia Dadabhai, Duncan Okall, Bintou Dembélé Keita, Luis Sagaon-Teyssier, Ravindre Panchia, Marie-Claude Boily & Mathieu Maheu-Giroux

Abstract

Some sexual and gender minorities (SGM), including men who have sex with men and transgender women, are disproportionately vulnerable to HIV. Many SGM in Africa report experiencing verbal or physical violence due to their sexual and/or gender identities or behaviours. The pathways linking such SGM violence to HIV acquisition are complex. We described experiences of verbal and physical SGM violence and explored pathways to HIV acquisition among SGM assigned male sex at birth using a two-stage individual participant data meta-analysis of three African cohort studies: CohMSM (Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Togo), HPTN 075 (Kenya, Malawi, South Africa), and Anza Mapema (Kenya). SGM violence was assessed at baseline and follow-up visits. We fit log-linear sequential conditional mean models using generalised estimating equations to estimate risk ratios linking SGM violence, moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms, hazardous drinking, condom use, and HIV acquisition, adjusted for baseline confounders and previous exposure and outcome. We pooled study estimates using random effects meta-analysis. SGM violence, mostly verbal, was reported by 36% (570/1590) participants at baseline (past 6–12 months), and 20% (321/1590) during the first year of follow-up (past 3–6 months). Baseline SGM violence was not associated with HIV acquisition (pooled adjusted risk ratio [aRR] = 1.0, 95% CI 0.5–1.9). During follow-up, SGM violence also showed no clear relationship with HIV, but was linked to depressive symptoms at the same visit (pooled aRR = 1.7, 1.3–2.1), in turn associated with hazardous drinking (pooled aRR = 1.4, 1.1–1.7). Impacts on condom use were inconclusive. SGM in Africa face high rates of violence, which are associated with depressive symptoms and hazardous drinking–potential routes to HIV vulnerability. While our study did not conclusively demonstrate higher HIV incidence among SGM reporting violence, interventions to reduce violence and support mental health remain crucial.

Pilot Implementation of HIV Self-Testing Delivery in Private Pharmacies Combined With a Respondent-Driven Sampling Method to Improve HIV Testing for Men Who Have Sex With Men and Transgender Women in Phnom Penh (ANRS 0100s): Protocol for a Prospective Mixed Method Feasibility Study

Joseph LARMARANGE — 2025-06-27T09:45:00Z

Pilot Implementation of HIV Self-Testing Delivery in Private Pharmacies Combined With a Respondent-Driven Sampling Method to Improve HIV Testing for Men Who Have Sex With Men and Transgender Women in Phnom Penh (ANRS 0100s): Protocol for a Prospective Mixed Method Feasibility Study

Chhavarath Dary , Olivier Ségéral , Joseph Larmarange , Emilie Mosnier , Mohamed Ben Mechlia , Vichea Ouk , Bruno Spire , Vonthanak Saphonn

JMIR Research Protocols, 2025, 14, pp.e65351. ⟨10.2196/65351⟩

Article dans une revue

inserm-05471400

Authors

Chhavarath Dary, Olivier Ségéral, Joseph Larmarange, Emilie Mosnier, Mohamed Ben Mechlia, Vichea Ouk, Bruno Spire, Vonthanak Saphonn

Abstract

Background: Regular testing is recognized as a key strategy for HIV control. The 2023 Integrated Biological and Behavioral Survey (IBBS) in Cambodia revealed that nearly one-third of men who have sex with men (MSM) and one-fourth of transgender women (TGW) were never tested for HIV or not for more than 12 months. The majority of MSM and TGW were tested at community-based organizations (CBOs) facilities and by CBO outreach workers, while private facilities are poorly used for HIV testing (6% for MSM and 9% for TGW). Private pharmacies could be able to deliver HIV self-testing kits giving the advantage of confidentiality, anonymity, and time savings, in particular for those reluctant to visit CBOs. The recruitment of participants using a respondent-driven sampling method could provide the opportunity to reach MSM and TGW outside the network of CBOs.

Objective: This pilot study aims to evaluate the feasibility of free HIV self-testing delivery by a private pharmacy combined with a respondent-driven sampling method to improve HIV testing among MSM and TGW in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

Methods: Both qualitative and quantitative approaches are used in this prospective feasibility study. The protocol was approved by the National Ethics Committee for Health Research in Cambodia (N0 351 NECHR). MSM and TGW aged more than 18 years old will be recruited via a respondent-driven sampling method with seeds recruited at hot spots and on social networks. The seeds will then distribute electronic and paper coupons to their networks physically and via social media, messaging, and calling applications. Each recruited peer will bring the coupon to receive direct and free access to one HIV self-testing kit at partner pharmacies as well as 10 additional coupons to recruit members of their networks. As for quantitative analysis, data from the study website will be imported, appended into a single matrix using Stata version 18SE (StataCorp), and analyzed using descriptive statistics, with a statistical significance level of .05. After 6 months, a qualitative assessment will be conducted among users, providers, and policymakers or key stakeholders to evaluate the acceptability and appropriateness of the strategy and to identify the barriers, facilitators, and recommendations. All transcripts will be analyzed according to the 6-phase reflexive thematic approach by Braun and Clarke. The results will be reported by participant-based and provider-based issues. QSR NVivo V.14 for Windows will be used to manage the data.

Results: The study was funded by Agence nationale de recherches sur le sida, les hépatites, et les maladies infectieuses émergentes (ANRS) in September 2023. Approval of the study protocol was successfully obtained from the NECHR in Cambodia and the Commission Nationale de l'Informatique et des Libertés (CNIL) in France (Autorisation Tacite) in February 2025. Data collection will be conducted between September 2024 and December 2025. The initial results are expected to be published in February 2026.

Conclusions: This public-private partnership intervention could allow the hidden population of MSM and TGW in Phnom Penh to be reached and tested.

Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05745168; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05745168

A Life course approach to investigate breast cancer and migration in the greater Paris area: the SENOVIE study protocol

Joseph LARMARANGE — 2025-04-03T15:40:18Z

A Life course approach to investigate breast cancer and migration in the greater Paris area: the SENOVIE study protocol

Karna Coulibaly , Clémence Schantz , Luis Teixeira , Annabel Desgrées du Loû , Gaëtan Des Guetz , Hamid Hocini , Laurent Zelek , Joseph Larmarange , Anne Gosselin

BMJ Open, 2025, 15 (4), pp.e095759. ⟨10.1136/bmjopen-2024-095759⟩

Article dans une revue

hal-05019538

Authors

Karna Coulibaly, Clémence Schantz, Luis Teixeira, Annabel Desgrées du Loû, Gaëtan Des Guetz, Hamid Hocini, Laurent Zelek, Joseph Larmarange, Anne Gosselin, for the SENOVIE study group

Abstract

Introduction

Breast cancer is a global public health challenge. It is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer-related death in women. Several inequalities remain among women facing this disease, depending on their country of birth and their sociodemographic characteristics. The SENOVIE study (Therapeutic mobility and breast cancer) aims to understand the life trajectories of women born in France and in sub-Saharan Africa treated for breast cancer in four hospitals in the greater Paris area.

Methods and analysis

The SENOVIE study is a mixed methods study, combining a quantitative and a qualitative approach. A quantitative retrospective life-event survey is conducted in four hospital centres in the greater Paris area, France, to (1) understand how breast cancer (diagnosis, treatment and possibly reconstruction) impacts the life trajectories of women in many spheres (migration, family life, professional life, financial situation, etc); (2) study the access to healthcare by women living with breast cancer and their determinants; and (3) examine how gender relations may shape breast cancer experience. Women born in France and women born in sub-Saharan Africa are recruited: 1000 women, including 500 per group. In the standardised, face-to-face questionnaire, each dimension of interest is collected year by year from birth until the time of the survey. Clinical and laboratory information is documented with a short medical questionnaire filled out by the medical teams. The qualitative survey is conducted specifically with women born in sub-Saharan Africa who came to France for treatment to better understand their trajectories and the specific obstacles they faced. To analyse the quantitative data collected, descriptive analyses will be used to visualise trajectories (sequence analysis), along with longitudinal analysis methods (survival models and duration models).

Ethics and dissemination

The study is conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki. The French Data Protection Authority (Commission Nationale de l'Informatique et des Libertés, declaration number 2231238) and the Committee for Persons' Protection East I (Comité de Protection des Personnes Est I, national number 2023-A01311-44) approved it. We will disseminate the findings through scientific publications, policy briefs, conferences and workshops.

Trial registration number

The SENOVIE France study is registered on Clinicaltrial.gov (NCT06503393; registration date: 7 September 2024; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06503393).

Syndromic and biological screening for sexually transmitted infections in female sex workers in Côte d'Ivoire: the ANRS 12381 PRINCESSE cohort study

Joseph LARMARANGE — 2025-03-13T17:07:15Z

Syndromic and biological screening for sexually transmitted infections in female sex workers in Côte d'Ivoire: the ANRS 12381 PRINCESSE cohort study

Marcellin N'zebo Nouaman , Patrick Ahuatchi Coffie , Aline Agoua , Clémence Zébago , Hervé Dao , Evelyne Kissi , Séverin Lenaud , Mian Anatole , Valentine Becquet , Mélanie Plazy , François Dabis , Serge Eholie , Joseph Larmarange

Frontiers in Public Health, 2025, 13, ⟨10.3389/fpubh.2025.1535122⟩

Article dans une revue

hal-04990223

Authors

Marcellin N'zebo Nouaman, Patrick Ahuatchi Coffie, Aline Agoua, Clémence Zébago, Hervé Dao, Evelyne Kissi, Séverin Lenaud, Mian Anatole, Valentine Becquet, Mélanie Plazy, François Dabis, Serge Eholie, Joseph Larmarange for the ANRS 12381 Princesse Study group

Abstract

Background: Female sex workers (FSWs) are at high risk of contracting STIs, in particular in Sub-Saharan Africa. The implementation of oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis provided an opportunity to draw attention to the sexual health needs of FSWs. Innovative strategies to screen for and reduce the burden of STIs is thus a priority. This study describes STI screening among FSWs enrolled in the PRINCESSE project in Côte d'Ivoire.

Methods: The PRINCESSE project (2019–2023) was an interventional cohort of FSWs ≥18 years, evaluating a comprehensive, community-based sexual and reproductive health care package, including the management of STIs, offered through mobile clinics operating on prostitution sites in San Pedro area. HIV testing and syndromic STI testing were offered at baseline and every 3 months. Biological testing of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) was offered annually. Clinical forms included sociodemographic, behavioral and sex-work-related characteristics. We describe baseline characteristics, coverage of clinical examination, and vaginal, anal swab collection. Social, behavioral and sex work-related factors associated with an STI syndromic diagnosis were explored. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with diagnosing a symptomatic STI.

Results: 489 FSWs were included in the PRINCESSE cohort. Median age was 29 years (24–35 years), 28.6% had had sex without a condom in the last 7 days. The prevalence of HIV at baseline was 10.5%. Only one case of HIV seroconversion was observed during the project. The most frequent symptom was ano-vaginal discharge (19.1%). The prevalence of STI based on clinical symptoms was 26.6%. The proportion of vaginal swab samples for which the PCR result was positive was 8.0% for CT and 4.0% for NG. Only age remained significantly associated with diagnosing a symptomatic STI in the multivariable analysis.

Conclusion: This study revealed a high prevalence of HIV and STIs, similar to national estimates among FSWs enrolled in a sexual health cohort. Screening for these generically asymptomatic bacterial STIs must be combined with the syndromic approach used in key populations, especially with the introduction of new PrEP programs, to reduce the exposure of individuals in these populations to STIs.

From conceptualising to modelling structural determinants and interventions in HIV transmission dynamics models: a scoping review and methodological framework for evidence-based analyses

Joseph LARMARANGE — 2024-09-25T07:24:35Z

Authors

James Stannah, Jorge Luis Flores Anato, Michael Pickles, Joseph Larmarange, Kate M. Mitchell, Adelina Artenie, Kostyantyn Dumchev, Serge Niangoran, Lucy Platt, Fern Terris-Prestholt, Aditya Singh, Jack Stone, Peter Vickerman, Andrew Phillips, Leigh Johnson, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux & Marie-Claude Boily

Abstract

Background

Including structural determinants (e.g. criminalisation, stigma, inequitable gender norms) in dynamic HIV transmission models is important to help quantify their population-level impacts and guide implementation of effective interventions that reduce the burden of HIV and inequalities thereof. However, evidence-based modelling of structural determinants is challenging partly due to a limited understanding of their causal pathways and few empirical estimates of their effects on HIV acquisition and transmission.

Methods

We conducted a scoping review of dynamic HIV transmission modelling studies that evaluated the impacts of structural determinants, published up to August 28, 2023, using Ovid Embase and Medline online databases. We appraised studies on how models represented exposure to structural determinants and causal pathways. Building on this, we developed a new methodological framework and recommendations to support the incorporation of structural determinants in transmission dynamics models and their analyses. We discuss the data and analyses that could strengthen the evidence used to inform these models.

Results

We identified 17 HIV modelling studies that represented structural determinants and/or interventions, including incarceration of people who inject drugs (number of studies [n] = 5), violence against women (n = 3), HIV stigma (n = 1), and housing instability (n = 1), among others (n = 7). Most studies (n = 10) modelled exposures dynamically. Almost half (8/17 studies) represented multiple exposure histories (e.g. current, recent, non-recent exposure). Structural determinants were often assumed to influence HIV indirectly by influencing mediators such as contact patterns, condom use, and antiretroviral therapy use. However, causal pathways' assumptions were sometimes simple, with few mediators explicitly represented in the model, and largely based on cross-sectional associations. Although most studies calibrated models using HIV epidemiological data, less than half (7/17) also fitted or cross-validated to data on the prevalence, frequency, or effects of exposure to structural determinants.

Conclusions

Mathematical models can play a crucial role in elucidating the population-level impacts of structural determinants and interventions on HIV. We recommend the next generation of models reflect exposure to structural determinants dynamically and mechanistically, and reproduce the key causal pathways, based on longitudinal evidence of links between structural determinants, mediators, and HIV. This would improve the validity and usefulness of predictions of the impacts of structural determinants and interventions.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of community-led HIV self-testing among key populations in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal

Joseph LARMARANGE — 2024-07-21T15:55:00Z

Cost‐effectiveness analysis of community‐led HIV self‐testing among key populations in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal

Ingrid Jiayin Lu , Romain Silhol , Marc d'Elbée , Marie-Claude Boily , Nirali Soni , Odette Ky-Zerbo , Anthony Vautier , Arlette Simo Fotso , Kéba Badiane , Metogara Traoré , Fern Terris-Prestholt , Joseph Larmarange , Mathieu Maheu-Giroux

Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2024, 27 (7), pp.1-12. ⟨10.1002/jia2.26334⟩

Article dans une revue

hal-04660337

Authors

Ingrid Jiayin Lu, Romain Silhol, Marc d'Elbée, Marie-Claude Boily, Nirali Soni, Odette Ky-Zerbo, Anthony Vautier, Artlette Simo Fosto, Kéba Badiane, Metogara Traoré, Fern Terris-Prestholt, Joseph Larmarange, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, for the ATLAS Team

Abstract

Introduction

HIV self-testing (HIVST) is a promising strategy to improve diagnosis coverage among key populations (KP). The ATLAS (Auto Test VIH, Libre d'Accéder à la connaissance de son Statut) programme implemented HIVST in three West African countries, distributing over 380,000 kits up between 2019 and 2021, focussing on community-led distribution by KP to their peers and subsequent secondary distribution to their partners and clients. We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of community-led HIVST in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali and Senegal.

Methods

An HIV transmission dynamics model was adapted and calibrated to country-specific epidemiological data and used to predict the impact of HIVST. We considered the distribution of HIVST among two KP—female sex workers (FSW), and men who have sex with men (MSM)—and their sexual partners and clients. We compared the cost-effectiveness of two scenarios against a counterfactual without HIVST over a 20-year horizon (2019–2039). The ATLAS-only scenario mimicked the 2-year implemented ATLAS programme, whereas the ATLAS-scale-up scenario achieved 95% coverage of HIVST distribution among FSW and MSM by 2025 onwards. The primary outcome is the number of disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) averted. Scenarios were compared using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Costing was performed using a healthcare provider's perspective. Costs were discounted at 4%, converted to $USD 2022 and estimated using a cost-function to accommodate economies of scale.

Results

The ATLAS-only scenario was highly cost-effective over 20 years, even at low willingness-to-pay thresholds. The median ICERs were $126 ($88–$210) per DALY averted in Côte d'Ivoire, $92 ($88–$210) in Mali and 27$ ($88–$210) in Senegal. Scaling-up the ATLAS programme would also be cost-effective, and substantial epidemiological impacts would be achieved. The ICERs for the scale-up scenario were $199 ($122–$338) per DALY averted in Côte d'Ivoire, $224 ($118–$415) in Mali and $61 ($18–$128) in Senegal.

Conclusions

Both the implemented and the potential scale-up of community-led HIVST programmes in West Africa, where KP are important to overall transmission dynamics, have the potential to be highly cost-effective, as compared to a scenario without HIVST. These findings support the scale-up of community-led HIVST to reach populations that otherwise may not access conventional testing services.

Potential population-level effects of HIV self-test distribution among key populations in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal : a mathematical modelling analysis

Joseph LARMARANGE — 2024-07-09T11:57:51Z

Authors

Romain Silhol, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, Nirali Soni, Arlette Simo Fotso, Nicolas Rouveau, Anthony Vautier, Clémence Doumenc-Aïdara, Olivier Geoffroy, Kouassi Noel N'Guessan, Younoussa Sidibé, Odé Kanku Kabemba, Papa Alioune Gueye, Pauline Dama Ndeye, Christinah Mukandavire, Prof Peter Vickerman, Abdelaye Keita, Prof Cheikh Tidiane Ndour, Joseph Larmarange, Prof Marie-Claude Boily on behalf of theATLAS Team

Abstract

Background

During 2019–21, the AutoTest VIH, Libre d'accéder à la connaissance de son Statut (ATLAS) programme distributed around 380 000 HIV self-testing kits to key populations, including female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and their partners, in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal. We aimed to estimate the effects of the ATLAS programme and national scale-up of HIV self-test distribution on HIV diagnosis, HIV treatment coverage, HIV incidence, and HIV-related mortality.

Methods

We adapted a deterministic compartmental model of HIV transmission in Côte d'Ivoire, parameterised and fitted to country-specific demographic, behavioural, HIV epidemiological, and intervention data in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal separately during 1980–2020. We simulated dynamics of new HIV infections, HIV diagnoses, and HIV-related deaths within scenarios with and without HIV self-test distribution among key populations. Models were separately parameterised and fitted to country-specific sets of epidemiological and intervention outcomes (stratified by sex, risk, age group, and HIV status, if available) over time within a Bayesian framework. We estimated the effects on the absolute increase in the proportion of people with HIV diagnosed at the end of 2021 for the ATLAS-only scenario and at the end of 2028 and 2038 for the HIV self-testing scale-up scenario. We estimated cumulative numbers of additional HIV diagnoses and initiations of antiretroviral therapy and the proportion and absolute numbers of new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths averted during 2019–21 and 2019–28 for the ATLAS-only scenario and during 2019–28 and 2019–38 for the HIV self-testing scale-up scenario.

Findings

Our model estimated that ATLAS could have led to 700 (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–900) additional HIV diagnoses in Côte d'Ivoire, 500 (300–900) in Mali, and 300 (50–700) in Senegal during 2019–21, a 04 percentage point (90% UI 03–05) increase overall by the end of 2021. During 2019–28, ATLAS was estimated to avert 1900 (90% UI 1300–2700) new HIV infections and 600 (400–800) HIV-related deaths across the three countries, of which 386% (90% UI 318–483) of new infections and 701% (604–773) of HIV-related deaths would be among key populations. ATLAS would avert 15% (08–31) of all HIV-related deaths across the three countries during this period. Scaling up HIV self-testing would avert 162% (90% UI 100–231) of all new HIV infections during 2019–28 in Senegal, 53% (30–89) in Mali, and 16% (10–24) in Côte d'Ivoire. HIV self-testing scale-up among key populations was estimated to increase HIV diagnosis by the end of 2028 to 13 percentage points (90% UI 08–19) in Côte d'Ivoire, 106 percentage points (53–168) in Senegal, and 36 percentage points (20–64) in Mali.

Interpretation

Scaling up HIV self-test distribution among key populations in western Africa could attenuate disparities in access to HIV testing and reduce infections and deaths among key populations and their partners.

Funding

Unitaid, Solthis, the UK Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, the EU European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership programme, and the Wellcome Trust.

Joseph Larmarange

Comparing modelled HIV incidence estimates with empirical HIV incidence observations in high-burden HIV African epidemic settings: systematic review and meta-regression

Comparing modelled HIV incidence estimates with empirical HIV incidence observations in high-burden HIV African epidemic settings: systematic review and meta-regression

Authors

Abstract

Knowledge, attitudes and practices relating to HIV self-testing following its introduction in the Bas-Sassandra region of Côte d'Ivoire: the case of the ATLAS project

Knowledge, attitudes and practices relating to HIV self-testing following its introduction in the Bas-Sassandra region of Côte d'Ivoire: the case of the ATLAS project

Authors

Abstract

Enseigner R sur YouTube en temps de COVID-19 : retour d'expérience des webin-R

Enseigner R sur YouTube en temps de COVID-19 : retour d'expérience des webin R

Résumé

The Effect of Sexual and Gender Minority Violence on Depression, Hazardous Drinking, Condom Use, and HIV Acquisition: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of the CohMSM, HPTN 075, and Anza Mapema Cohort Studies in Africa

The Effect of Sexual and Gender Minority Violence on Depression, Hazardous Drinking, Condom Use, and HIV Acquisition: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of the CohMSM, HPTN 075, and Anza Mapema Cohort Studies in Africa

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Pilot Implementation of HIV Self-Testing Delivery in Private Pharmacies Combined With a Respondent-Driven Sampling Method to Improve HIV Testing for Men Who Have Sex With Men and Transgender Women in Phnom Penh (ANRS 0100s): Protocol for a Prospective Mixed Method Feasibility Study

Pilot Implementation of HIV Self-Testing Delivery in Private Pharmacies Combined With a Respondent-Driven Sampling Method to Improve HIV Testing for Men Who Have Sex With Men and Transgender Women in Phnom Penh (ANRS 0100s): Protocol for a Prospective Mixed Method Feasibility Study

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A Life course approach to investigate breast cancer and migration in the greater Paris area: the SENOVIE study protocol

A Life course approach to investigate breast cancer and migration in the greater Paris area: the SENOVIE study protocol

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Syndromic and biological screening for sexually transmitted infections in female sex workers in Côte d'Ivoire: the ANRS 12381 PRINCESSE cohort study

Syndromic and biological screening for sexually transmitted infections in female sex workers in Côte d'Ivoire: the ANRS 12381 PRINCESSE cohort study

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From conceptualising to modelling structural determinants and interventions in HIV transmission dynamics models: a scoping review and methodological framework for evidence-based analyses

From conceptualising to modelling structural determinants and interventions in HIV transmission dynamics models: a scoping review and methodological framework for evidence-based analyses

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Cost-effectiveness analysis of community-led HIV self-testing among key populations in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal

Cost‐effectiveness analysis of community‐led HIV self‐testing among key populations in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal

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Potential population-level effects of HIV self-test distribution among key populations in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal : a mathematical modelling analysis

Potential population-level effects of HIV self-test distribution among key populations in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal: a mathematical modelling analysis

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